From KerschgensWiki

Publications of the research group since 2005

* submitted / revision

[a] Fraga H, et al. (2014) Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions. Plos One (submitted)

[b] Haas R, et al. (2014) Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe based on MPI-ESM-LR. Meteorol Z (submitted)

[c] Karremann MK, et al. (2014) On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci Discuss 2:1913-1943, doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-1913-2014 discussion paper (revision)

[d] Ludwig P, et al. (2014) Dynamic aspects of windstorm Kyrill (January 2007). Mon Weather Rev (revision)

[e] Pereira MG, et al. (2014) Impact of Projected Climate Change in the Design of Urban Stormwater Drainage Systems – A Case Study for Portugal. J Irrig Drain Eng (revised)

[f] Sein DV, et al. (2014) Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain. Tellus A (revised)

[g] Woollings T, et al. (2014) Contrasting interannual and multi-decadal NAO variability. Clim Dyn (revision)

* published online / in press

[72] Ludwig P, Pinto JG, Reyers M, Gray SL (2013) The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia. Quart J R Meteorol Soc doi:10.1002/qj.2253 link

[71] Nissen KM, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U (2013) Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate. Reg Environ Change doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0400-8 link

[70] Reyers M, Pinto JG, Moemken J (2014) Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: Evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections. Int J Climatol doi:10.1002/joc.3975 link

* published 2014

[69] Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Jones GV, Alves F, Pinto JG, Santos JA (2014) Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios. Reg Environ Change 14:295-306 doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0490-y link

[68] Gómara I, Pinto JG, Woollings T, Masato G, Zurita-Gotor P, Rodríguez-Fonseca B (2014) Rossby Wave-Breaking analysis of Explosive Cyclones in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 140:738–753 doi:10.1002/qj.2190 link

[67] Gómara I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Zurita-Gotor P, Pinto JG (2014) On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 41:2182–2190 doi:10.1002/2014GL059647 link

[66] Haas R, Pinto JG, Born K (2014) Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach? J Geophys Res – Atmospheres 119:713–725 doi:10.1002/2013JD020882 link

[65] Lomazzi M, Entekhabi D, Pinto JG, Roth G, Rudari R (2014) Synoptic Preconditions for Extreme Flooding During the Summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai Area. J Hydrometeorol 15:229–242 doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-039.1 link

[64] Seregina LS, Haas R, Born K, Pinto JG (2014) Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods. Tellus A 66:22905 doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.22905

* published 2013

[63] Liberato MLR, Pinto JG, Trigo RM, Ludwig P, Ordóñez P, Yuen D, Trigo IF (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13, 2239-2251 doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013 link

[62] Held H, Gerstengarbe FW, Pardowitz T, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Böhm U, Born K, Büchner M, Donat MG, Karremann MK, Leckebusch GC, Ludwig P, Nissen KM, Nocke T, Osterle H, Prahl BF, Werner PC, Befort BJ, Burghoff O (2013) Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector. Clim Change 121:195–207 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0872-7 link

[61] Hueging H, Born K, Haas R, Jacob D, Pinto JG (2013) Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections. J Appl Meteor Climatol 52:903-917 doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-086.1 link

[60] Neu U, Akperov MG, Bellenbaum N, Benestad R, Blender R, Caballero R, Cocozza A, Dacre HF, Feng Y, Fraedrich K, Grieger J, Gulev S, Hanley J, Hewson T, Inatsu M, Keay K, Kew SF, Kindem I, Leckebusch GC, Liberato MLR, Lionello P, Mokhov II, Pinto JG, Raible CC, Reale M, Rudeva I, Schuster M, Simmonds I, Sinclair M, Sprenger M, Tilinina ND, Trigo IF, Ulbrich S, Ulbrich U, Wang XL, Wernli H (2013) IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 94:529–547 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1 link

[59] Pinto JG, Bellenbaum N, Karremann MK, Della-Marta PM (2013) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions. J Geophys Res - Atmospheres 118:12476–12485 doi:10.1002/2013JD020564 link

[58] Pinto JG, Ulbrich S, Boni G, Parodi A, Rudari R, Ulbrich U (2013) Identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events over Northwest Italy: The role of Atlantic moisture. J Geophys Res - Atmospheres 118:2085–2097 doi:10.1002/jgrd.50179 link

[57] Reyers M, Pinto JG, Paeth H (2013) Statistical-dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia. Global Planet Change 107:36-49 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.04.003 link

[56] Santos JA, Grätsch SD, Karremann MK, Jones GV, Pinto JG (2013) Ensemble projections for grapevine yield in the Douro Valley of Portugal. Clim Change 117:211–225 doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0538-x link

[55] Santos JA, Woollings T, Pinto JG (2013) Are the winters 2010 and 2012 archetypes exhibiting extreme opposite behavior of the North Atlantic jet stream? Mon Weather Rev 141:3626–3640 doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00024.1 link

[54] Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Grieger J, Schuster M, Akperov MG, Bardin MY, Feng Y, Gulev S, Inatsu M, Keay K, Kew SF, Liberato MLR, Lionello P, Mokhov II, Neu U, Pinto JG, Raible CC, Reale M, Rudeva I, Simmonds I, Tilinina ND, Trigo IF, Ulbrich S, Wang XL, Wernli H, and the IMILAST team (2013) Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking methodology? Meteorol Z 22:61–68 doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 link

* published 2012

[53] Born K, Ludwig P, Pinto JG (2012) Wind Gust Estimation for Mid-European Winter Storms: Towards a Probabilistic View. Tellus A 64:17471 doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17471 link

[52] Costa AC, Santos JA, Pinto JG (2012) Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal. Theor Appl Climatol 108:217–234 doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0528-3 link

[51] Fink AH, Pohle S, Pinto JG, Knippertz P (2012) Diagnosing the influence of diabatic processes on the explosive deepening of extratropical cyclones. Geophys Res Lett 39:L07803 doi:10.1029/2012GL051025 link

[50] Fragoso M, Trigo RM, Pinto JG, Lopes S, Lopes A, Ulbrich S, Magro C (2012) The 20 February 2010 Madeira Flash-floods: Atmospheric controls and extreme rainfall assessment. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12, 715-730, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-715-2012 link

[49] Haas R, Pinto JG (2012) A combined statistical and dynamical approach for downscaling large-scale footprints of European windstorms. Geophys Res Lett 39:L23804 doi:10.1029/2012GL054014 link Editor's Highlight / Research Spotlight

[48] Pinto JG, Karremann MK, Born K, Della-Marta PM, Klawa M (2012) Loss potentials associated with European windstorms under future climate conditions. Clim Res 54:1–20 doi:10.3354/cr01111 link

[47] Pinto JG, Raible CC (2012) Past and recent changes in the North Atlantic oscillation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 3:79-90 doi:10.1002/wcc.150 link

[46] Santos JA, Malheiro AC, Pinto JG, Jones GV (2012) Macroclimate viticultural zoning in Europe: observed trends and atmospheric forcing. Clim Res 51:89-103 doi:10.3354/cr01056 link

[45] Woollings T, Gregory JM, Pinto JG, Reyers M, Brayshaw DJ (2012) Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nature Geoscience 5:313–317 doi:10.1038/ngeo1438 link

[44] Zacharias S, Reyers M, Pinto JG, Schween JH, Crewell S, Kerschgens M (2012) Heat and moisture budgets from airborne measurements and high resolution model simulations. Meteorol Atmos Phys 117:47–61 doi:10.1007/s00703-012-0188-6 link

* published 2011

[43] Andrade C, Santos JA, Pinto JG, Corte-Real J (2011) Large-scale atmospheric dynamics of the wet winter 2009–2010 and its impact on hydrology in Portugal. Clim Res 46:29-41 doi:10.3354/cr00945 link

[42] Haas R, Born K (2011) Probabilistic downscaling of precipitation data in a subtropical mountain area: A two-step approach. Nonlin Processes Geophys 18:223-234 doi:10.5194/npg-18-223-2011 link

[41] Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334 doi:10.1002/wea.755 link

[40] Pinto JG, Reyers M, Ulbrich U (2011) The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations. Clim. Dyn. 36:337-354 doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0770-x link

[39] Reyers M, Krüger A, Werner C, Pinto JG, Zacharias S, Kerschgens M (2011) The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land use types - coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model. Bound Layer Meteor 139:121-141 doi:10.1007/s10546-010-9574-0 link

[38] Santos JA, Malheiro AC, Karremann MK, Pinto JG (2011) Statistical modelling of grapevine productivity in the Port Wine region for present and future climate conditions. Int J Biometeorol 55:119-131. doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0318-0 link

[37] Woollings T, Pinto JG, Santos JA (2011) Dynamical evolution of North Atlantic ridges and poleward jet stream displacements. J Atmos Sci 68:954-963 doi:10.1175/2011JAS3661.1 link

* published 2010

[36] Andrade C, Santos JA, Pinto JG, Corte-Real J, Leite S (2010) Empirical forcing functions as a tool for diagnosing large-scale atmospheric anomalies. Ann. Geophys., 28:75-87 link

[35] Donat MG, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U (2010) Examination of Wind Storms over Central Europe with respect to Circulation Weather Types and NAO phases. Int. J. Climatol. 30:1289-1300 doi:10.1002/joc.1982 link

[34] Donat MG, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U (2010) European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim. Res. 42:27-43 doi:10.3354/cr00853 link

[33] Klose M, Shao YP, Karremann MK, Fink AH (2010) Sahel Dust Zone and Synoptic Background. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37: L09802 doi:10.1029/2010GL042816 link

[33] Malheiro AC, Santos JA, Fraga H, Pinto JG (2010) Climate change scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe. Clim Res 43:163-177 doi:10.3354/cr00918 link

[31] Nissen KM, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Renggli D, Ulbrich S, Ulbrich U (2010) Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1379-1391 link

[30] Pinto JG, Neuhaus CP, Leckebusch GC, Reyers M, Kerschgens M (2010) Estimation of wind storm impacts over West Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach. Tellus A, 62:188-201 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00424.x link

* published 2009

[29] Della-Marta PM, Pinto JG (2009) The statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36: L14703, doi:10.1029/2009GL038557 link

[28] Fink AH, Brücher T, Ermert E, Krüger A, Pinto JG (2009) The European Storm Kyrill in January 2007: Synoptic Evolution and Considerations with Respect to Climate Change. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 405-423 link

[27] Paeth H, Born K, Girmes R, Podzun R, Jacob D (2009) Regional climate change in tropical and northern Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes. J. Clim. 22, 114-132. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2390.1 link

[26] Pinto JG, Neuhaus CP, Krüger A, Kerschgens M (2009) Assessment of the Wind Gust Estimates Method in Mesoscale Modelling of Storm Events over West Germany. Meteorol. Z., 18: 495-506 link

[25] Pinto JG, Zacharias S, Fink AH, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U, (2009) Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO. Clim. Dyn., 32: 711-737 link

[24] Santos JA, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, (2009) On the development of strong ridge episodes over the Eastern North Atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36: L17804 doi: 10.1029/2009GL039086 link

[23] Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG (2009) Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96: 117–131 link

[22] Zhou W, Chan JCL, Chen W, Ling J, Pinto JG, Shao YP (2009) Synoptic-Scale controls of Persistent Low Temperature and Icy Weather over Southern China in January 2008. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137:3978–3991 doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2952.1 link

* published 2008

[21] Born K, Christoph M, Fink AH, Knippertz P, Paeth H, Speth P (2008) Moroccan climate in present and future: combined view from observational data and regional climate scenarios. In: Zeini F & Hötzl H, Editors, Climatic changes and water resources in the Middle East and North Africa, Springer, pp. 29–45 link

[20] Born K, Fink AH, Paeth H (2008) Dry and Wet Periods in the northwestern Maghreb for Present Day and Future Climate Conditions. Meteorol. Z. 17, 533-551. link

[19] Leckebusch GC, Weimer A, Pinto JG, Reyers M, Speth P (2008) Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach. Meteorol. Z., 17: 67-82. link

[18] Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Kupfer H, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M (2008) Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations. J. Clim., 21: 1669–1679. link

* published 2007

[17] Hübener H, Kerschgens M (2007) Downscaling of current and future rainfall climatologies for southern Morocco. Part I: Downscaling method and current climatology. Int. J. Climatol. , Published Online, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1491 link

[16] Hübener H, Kerschgens M (2007) Downscaling of current and future rainfall climatologies for southern Morocco. Part II: Climate change signals. Published online first. Int. J. Climatology, DOI 10.1002/joc.1457 link

[15] Hübener H, Born K, Kerschgens M (2007) Downscaling heavy rainfall in the subtropics - A simple approach for dynamical nesting. Advances in Geophysics, 10, 9-16 link

[14] Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U, Fröhlich EL, Pinto JG (2007) Property loss potentials for European mid-latitude storms in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027663. link

[13] Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharias S (2007) Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Clim. Dyn., 29, 195-210. link

[12] Pinto JG, Fröhlich EL, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2007) Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 165-175. link

[11] Pinto JG, Brücher T, Fink AH, Krüger A (2007) Extraordinary snow accumulations over parts of central Europe during the winter of 2005/06 and weather-related hazards. Weather, 62, 16-21. link

* published 2006

[10] Heinemann G, Kerschgens M (2006) Simulation of Surface Energy Fluxes Using High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic Simulations and Comparison with Measurements for The LITFASS-2003 Experiment, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 121, 195-220 link

[9] Leckebusch GC, Koffi B, Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Spangehl T, Zacharias S (2006) Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales. Clim. Res., 31, 59-74. link

[8] Mengelkamp HT, Beyrich F, Heinemann G, Ament F, Bange J, Berger F, Bosenberg J, Foken T, Hennemuth B, Heret C, Huneke S, Johnsen KP, Kerschgens M, KoHsiek W, Leps JP, Liebethal C, Lohse H, Mauder M, Meijninger W, Raasch S, Simmer C, Spieß T, Tiftebrand A, Uhlenbrock J, Zittel P (2006) Evaporation over a heterogeneous land surface. – BAMS, June 2006, 775-786. link

[7] Pinto JG, Spangehl T, Ulbrich U, Speth P (2006) Assessment of winter cyclone activity in a transient ECHAM4-OPYC3 GHG experiment. Meteorol. Z., 15, 279-291. link

[6] Sogalla M, Krüger A, Kerschgens M (2006) Mesoscale modelling of interactions between rainfall and the land surface in West Africa. Meteorl. and Atmos. Phys., 91, 211-221. link

* published 2005

[5] Heinemann G, Kerschgens M (2005) Comparison of methods for area-averaging surface energy fluxes over heterogeneous land surfaces using high-resolution non-hydrostatic simulations. Int. J. Climatol., 25, DOI 10, 1002/joc.1123, 379-403. link

[4] Hübener H, Schmidt M, Sogalla M, Kerschgens M (2005) Simulating Evapotranspiration in a Semi-Arid Environment, Theoret. and Applied Climatol., 80, 153-167. link

[3] Kundzewicz ZW, Ulbrich U, Brücher T, Graczyk D, Krüger A, Leckebusch GC, Menzel L, Pinskwar I, Radziejewski M, Szwed M (2005) Summer Floods in Central Europe - Climate Change Track?. Nat. Hazards, 36, 165-189, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6 link

[2] Paeth H, Born K, Podzun R, Jacob D (2005) Regional dynamical downscaling over Westafrica: model evaluation and comparision of wet and dry years. Meteorol. Z. 14, 249-267. link

[1] Pinto JG, Spangehl T, Ulbrich U, Speth P (2005) Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology. Meteorol. Z., 14, 823-838. link